Vulnerability of grain production of the Republic of Kazakhstan to Climate Change

Abstract

Agriculture occupies a significant share in the economy of Kazakhstan, which is based on crop production. Today, the agricultural turnover of the republic is more than 21 million hectares of land. Of these, more than 1.0 million hectares are irrigated (about 5%), i.e. agricultural crops are cultivated in conditions of natural moisturizing on 95% of the land area. Grain production is a priority in the country crop production.

The purpose of this work is to assess the vulnerability of grain production in Kazakhstan to climate change, forecast of its possible state in the conditions of climate change until 2050. To achieve this purpose, the assessment of current and expected to 2050 agro-climatic conditions, unfavorable weather phenomena for agriculture, as well as the yield of wheat and sunflower.

Climate change is known to have both positive and negative impacts on agriculture. The negative consequences include an increase in the increased frequency of droughts and reduction of agricultural crops yield [5, 9, 12, 15].